Forecast 2035: Expectations for tourism in the Netherlands
Today, NBTC and CELTH present the new forecast for tourism in the Netherlands. This forecast, developed in the Data & Development Lab (DDL), provides insights into domestic and inbound tourism up to 2035 at both national and provincial levels.
In 2035, the Netherlands is expected to receive 61 million guests, 12 million more than in 2023. Domestic tourism will grow by 13% to 33 million guests, a stronger increase than the previous forecast from 2018 in Perspective 2030. The number of international guests will increase by 39% to 28 million, but the growth will be slower than previously predicted, especially from traditional markets. At the same time, Spain shows a strong rise and Asia continues to grow significantly.
Provincial forecast
Forecast 2035 is developed with policymakers, provinces, and destination marketing organizations in mind and, for the first time, offers a detailed distribution of the expected growth in tourism at the provincial level. Researcher Diana Korteweg Maris from CELTH/HZ Knowledge Center for Coastal Tourism: "What you mainly see is that the development pace really differs per province. You can already see that some provinces are very internationally oriented and some less so. This is also reflected in the forecast. So yes, the differences between provinces are quite significant. This is a valuable insight in our new forecast."
Domestic tourism
Domestic tourism will grow by 13% from 29 million in 2023 to 33 million in 2035. This development is partly driven by an improved image of vacations in one's own country since the COVID-19 pandemic and the preference for destinations closer to home. Weather conditions abroad also play a role: in extreme weather, Dutch people more often choose a vacation within the country's borders.
Inbound tourism
Inbound visits are expected to grow by 39% to 28 million in 2035. This growth will be slower than previously expected, especially from traditional markets such as Germany. At the same time, other markets show a strong rise. For example, the number of guests from Spain is likely to double, while Italy as a source market also shows significant growth. From Asia, a more than doubling of guests compared to 2023 is expected, with China as an important source country.
The complete forecast, including the provincial forecast, is accessible via: https://www.nbtc.nl/nl/site/bestemming-nederland/verblijfstoerisme-in-nederland
Photo for this article by Ernst Wagensveld / NBTC Mediabank