New research shows the climate risks for Dutch travel companies

Funded by CELTH and environmental organisation Natuur & Milieu, researchers from Breda University of Applied Sciences, Wageningen University and HZ University of Applied Sciences have developed a tool that maps the extent to which travel organisations are exposed to climate risks (KLIMARISKSCAN). With the help of KLIMARISKSCAN, 199 Dutch travel organisations were subsequently examined. The researchers conclude that 165 companies face significant climate risks.

Climate risks are risks of accelerated loss of value and stranding of assets because of the effects of climate change. The researchers have found 18 different climate risks that impact the travel industry.

Climate change is already affecting holiday destinations

Many holiday destinations are already increasingly confronted with heat, drought, natural disasters (forest fires, severe weather) and the effects of sea level rise. This will lead to increasing health risks for customers and employees, damage to hotels and loss of turnover. Some destinations will soon become unsuitable for certain forms of tourism.

Flying holidays are becoming more expensive

Aviation is becoming more sustainable too slowly. More sustainable aviation fuel is expensive and remains scarce. And the price of CO2 emission allowances will rise. Going on holiday by plane is therefore more expensive. Certain destinations and product types will also become less attractive to consumers due to a shift in standards and the increasingly visible physical effects of climate change on holiday destinations.

Flying holidays make tour operators vulnerable to climate risks

Air holidays – especially over longer distances – have a climate impact that will more often be brought into legal and social discussion. At the same time, aeroplanes enable travel companies to profitably offer holidays to destinations that are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Travel organisations that are largely dependent on long-haul aviation for their product are therefore significantly more vulnerable to climate risks.” said Harald Buijtendijk, senior lecturer and sustainable tourism researcher at the Center for Sustainability, Tourism and Transport of Breda University of Applied Sciences and lead author of the report.

“The growing supply of air travel in particular increases the climate risks for the travel industry, but also for other sectors. The travel industry is putting its business model under pressure. Fortunately, travel organisations are in the position to do something about the causes of climate risks for everyone as well as the consequences for their sector," says Piet Sprengers, Sustainability Strategy and Policy Manager at ASN Bank.

Travel organisations must adjust their offering, the government can help them with this

However, if established revenue models are still profitable, travel organisations have little incentive to adapt their offerings. Government policy can also help. For example, by making air travel taxes distance-related, with longer distances being taxed more heavily and a legally established CO2 ceiling for all Dutch airports. In this way, it becomes more interesting for travel organisations to make their product offerings less dependent on aviation and to focus on destinations that are less vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This benefits their future sustainability.

More research into climate risks needed

Research into climate risks is still in its infancy in many sectors. CLIMATE RISKSCAN can be further developed, for example into a complete climate risk model for tourism. It is also valuable to regularly measure for the most popular Dutch holiday destinations how holidaymakers travelling from the Netherlands experience exposure to the effects of climate change and how this affects their holiday behaviour.

Menno Stokman, director of CELTH: “Such tools and data help both the industry and policymakers to realise behavioural changes on both the demand and supply sides and thus make more sustainable travel possible.”