Dutch overnight tourism in 2035: Preparing for a quarter more stay-over tourists

The last long-term national forecast dates from the time when Perspective 2030 was published in 2018. At that time, our worldview looked a lot brighter, and we assumed 28.8 million international overnight guests in 2030 and 30.9 million Dutch guests. “We have gone through a pandemic and are in a period of economic headwinds and an unstable world,” says Snip. In the Forecast 2035, as in the previous version, expectations are set at national level for both domestic and inbound tourism in 2035 from the most important countries of origin for Dutch tourism. In the new Forecast 2035, the researchers went one step further and, in addition to a national forecast, an expectation has also been developed at provincial level. Snip: “There was a strong demand in the country to translate that national figure to the level of provinces. That it provides sharper and more distinctive input for making local plans.” Korteweg Maris adds: “This differentiation of a national forecast into provinces had never been done before. It was quite a search with fortunately a great result.”

Forecast built bottom-up

The research started with a national forecast, constructed bottom-up from the main countries of origin for Dutch tourism. The researchers did not simply extend trend lines. "We purchased data from Oxford Economics, which gave us an estimate of the number of guests per country of origin up to and including 2033. Oxford Economics has a very extensive macroeconomic model, accounting for all kinds of factors. We have built on that," Snip explains. The data from Oxford Economics were combined with figures from Statistics Netherlands and further refined by experts at NBTC's foreign branches.

Korteweg Maris explains the regional approach: "We applied several scenarios for translation at provincial level. We found simply translating national growth figures from a specific country of origin one-to-one across all provinces to be too simple and incorrect. Ultimately, we opted for the share that a province had in the national growth of each country of origin between 2012 and 2023. On this basis, we divided the expected national growth among the provinces.” These results have been discussed with each province to determine whether there are regional developments that could influence the growth of tourism. “You can then think about new policy, marketing or supply. If a large day attraction or mega holiday park is developed in a province, this will of course affect demand.”

Millions of additional overnight guests every year

The results show an expected growth of 24% in stay-over tourism in the Netherlands from 2023 to 2035, which equates to an increase of 12 million guests. "Remarkably, that's exactly 1 million per year," Snip noted. The domestic market is expected to grow by 13% to 33 million overnight guests, while inbound tourism will increase by 39% to 28 million. This means that in 2035, domestic tourism will still be larger than incoming tourism, with a share of 54%. Snip: “What we see is that domestic growth is stronger than expected in Perspective 2030. Domestic tourism has grown strongly during the Corona pandemic and has maintained that higher level. We now see that the previous forecast for 2030 for domestic tourism will already be achieved in 2027 and we must prepare for 33 million Dutch guests in 2035.”

While the forecast for domestic tourism has been adjusted upwards, this is not the case for inbound tourism. Snip: “That growth is slower than expected in Perspective 2030. I think that is also an important context to share. In addition, the pandemic's heavy impact on international travel movements, meaning that the previously expected 2030 level for inbound tourism will not be achieved even in 2035.”

Growth from major countries of origin is stabilising

In the important countries of origin for Dutch tourism, the strong growth has stopped. Snip: “Look at Germany, for example: this neighboring country achieved growth of 10% per year between 2012 and 2019. That is exceptionally high. We now expect average annual growth from Germany of 1% per year and 13% over the entire period until 2035. That is a very different growth path than we previously saw. Despite this, you are still talking about almost a million extra Germans who will come here in the coming years.” Many Belgian guests also come to the Netherlands. How will that market develop according to Snip? “We expect 35% more overnight guests from Belgium over the entire period. Faster growth than from Germany, but here too more moderate than we previously saw.” Internationally, the researchers see that Asia will reach the level of North and South America in terms of the number of overnight guests. “Compared to America, Asia will grow somewhat faster. On the other hand, this is also moderate, since China will not reach the 2019 level in the number of overnight guests until 2033.”

The researchers arrive at differentiated growth figures regionally. Korteweg Maris: “What you mainly see is that the pace of development differs per province. Of course, you can already see that several provinces are very internationally oriented and some are less so. This of course also translates into the prognosis. So yes, the differences between provinces are quite significant. That is a valuable insight in our new forecast.”

Tool to adjust policy development

The researchers emphasise that a forecast is always an estimate and that reality can differ. The question above the market is what the value of the Forecast 2035 is. Korteweg Maris is clear about this: “It indicates which development direction you can expect. You can then adjust your policy development accordingly. It provides direction for both spatial policy and destination management.” According to Korteweg Maris, with expectations in hand, you can better respond to expected market developments and adjust marketing strategies. “When it comes to marketing and promotion, you can see in which markets there are opportunities. And where you might be able to focus a little more.” Korteweg Maris also emphasises that the forecast is also valuable for managing tourism in time and space. "If you know that guest groups are going to grow, you can better manage when and where you want to receive these guests. Do you want to receive them in the summer, or would you rather receive them in the early and late season or in the winter?"

Opportunities for less touristy regions

All in all, there will be 12 million additional overnight guests in the Netherlands by 2035. The researchers indicate that it is difficult to estimate exactly what this will mean for the supply. Korteweg Maris: “You cannot determine from the forecast the period of the year in which the extra demand falls. We work with annual figures that are based on macro developments. That is almost impossible to allocate to months in the year. We expect it to sort itself out. I think that the existing supply capacity can also be used better. But that won't be always and everywhere in the summer.”

Looking back, the researchers are proud of the entire process. Snip: “I am very proud of the result and the collaboration with CELTH. If you look at the timeline, you will see that we started at the beginning of 2024 and have had almost weekly meetings since then about the progress of this project. We have encountered many stumbling blocks, because it is not easy to create a model for the first time and to provide forecasts at provincial level. It has been trial and error: you try something, take a step back, take two steps forward and continuously coordinate with fellow researchers. But ultimately, also in consultation with provinces, you arrive at a result that we can be happy with.” Korteweg Maris once again points out the importance of the provincial forecasts: “It is a huge step forward compared to just a national forecast. Particularly because the policy for tourism and recreation is mainly made at a provincial and local level. So, in that regard, I think we provide a nice building block for the parties involved in this.” Korteweg Maris also has concrete ideas: “Spatial policy is high on the agenda in every province. Which new developments should you allow or not? This forecast provides them with an assessment framework that provides insight into expected market development.”

It is a shame for the sector that no forecast has been made at the level of accommodation type. Hotels, campsites and holiday parks would be happy to know what this forecast means for them. Korteweg Maris sees that need, but also warns: “Look, there are always wishes. We have consciously chosen to keep it here for now. Moreover, we must realise that it is a forecast and with every level of detail you add you also build in a larger margin of error. You then pile assumption upon assumption.”

A challenge that emerges from the results is that many destinations no longer use growth as a goal, even though there will be growth. Korteweg Maris: “Tourism in the Netherlands is going to grow, but hopefully you will also create preconditions so that that growth is somewhat contained and that it does not come across as a wave. We in the Netherlands must realize that the demand for tourism is growing worldwide. Part of that growth automatically ends up in your destination. It is organic growth, but does not automatically mean that we also have to grow the supply. As a destination you certainly have a role in this.”

All results

Read all about the Forecast on the NBTC site https://www.nbtc.nl/nl/site/bestemming-nederland/verblijfstoerisme-in-nederland